NIHSA FLOOD & DROUGHT MONITOR

1.0     PEAK BLACK FLOOD FLOW RECORDED IN NIAMEY, NIGER REPUBLIC

The Black Flood flow of River Niger has reached its peak flow on 31st December, 2019 in Niamey, Niger Republic, upstream of Nigeria with a maximum Water Level (WL) of 5.54m corresponding to discharge of 1,898 m3/s. The White flood occurs during the rainy season while the Black Flood, originating from Guinea, occurs during the dry season (Fig1).

Warning: The riparian communities are advised to continue to take precaution in the flood prone areas.

2.0 BLACK FLOOD INCREASING IN NIGERIA

The Black flow along River Niger is gradually rising in Nigeria at Jiderebode, Kebbi State, upstream Kainji dam in December 2019 with a maximum WL of 3.41m corresponding to discharge of 1,758m3/s recorded on the 31st December 2019. The minimum WL was 3.36m corresponding to discharge of 1,718 m3/s recorded on 1st December 2019 while the mean WL for the month was 3.38m with the discharge of 1,730 m3/s (Fig. 2). It is expected to attain its peak flow in February 2020.

It should be noted that the Black Flood has no negative impact downstream in the country because of its absorption by the Kainji and Jebba dams as well as serves as a source of recharging the dams in the dry season.

Warning: The communities populace are advised to continue to take precaution in the flood prone areas.

fig. 2: Comparative Hydrograph of Rivers Niger at Jiderebode Upstream Kainji Dam.

3.0 RIVER NIGER FLOW RECEDING AT LOKOJA

The flow of River Niger at Lokoja (Kogi State), confluence of Rivers Niger and Benue has been decreasing with a maximum WL of 5.10m corresponding to a discharge of about 7,090 m3/s recorded on 1st December 2019 and a minimum of 3.66m corresponding to a discharge of 4,153 m3/s recorded on 31st December 2019 with a mean WL of 4.12m corresponding to a discharge of 5,079 m3/s.

The 2019 Comparative Hydrographs of River Niger at Lokoja with that of 2018 and 2012 hydrological years is shown in Fig 3.

Fig. 3: Comparative Hydrographs of rivers Niger and Benue at Lokoja.

4.0 JANUARY 2020 CLIMATIC FORECAST IN NIGERIA

4.1 Mean Monthly River Flow Forecast

The Mean Monthly River Flow Forecast in Nigeria in January 2020 will range from 1,000 m3/s to 5000 m3/s along Rivers Niger and from 1 to 5 m3/s in the hinterland while it will be from 5 to 10 m3/s in the coastal areas of the country (Fig.4).

Fig. 4: Mean Monthly River Flow Forecast in January 2020.

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